NanoMarkets has just released a new report on thin-film silicon photovoltaics. See here for details.

Amorphous silicon (a-Si), a type of thin-film photovoltaic (PV) technology, is experiencing a dramatic growth curve worldwide and offers a compelling business opportunity in power generation, building- integrated solutions and consumer applications. Thin-film PV solutions are the most rapidly growing portion of the PV landscape with approximately 23 percent of the overall PV market in 2008 and a-Si represents the largest component at over 50 percent of the overall TFPV market production in 2008. Amorphous silicon is well positioned to become low-cost PV solution of choice for many applications in the eight-year time frame covered in this report. Lower cost per kWh is the main driver for the shift from crystalline silicon PV to thin-film PV, as well as the increasing acceptance of a-Si thin-film PV for new applications. Cost, product maturity, excellent reliability, and availability of product in high volume are all reasons a-Si has become the most popular of the thin-film technologies; other TFPV technologies include CIS/CIGS and organic PV, which have product maturity issues, and CdTe, which suffers from government regulatory issues at end of life disposal/recycling.

The economics of all photovoltaics involve a high upfront cost to pay for the solar panels, but free feedstock in the form of light from the sun and relatively low operating costs because of the relatively low, periodic maintenance costs compared to traditional methods of power generation. The PV technology that is able to provide the quickest path to lowering these upfront costs and deliver product in high volume is likely to become the dominant PV solution. Amorphous silicon thin-film PV is well positioned to be the PV solution that can provide both large volumes quickly and a roadmap to low cost faster than competing TFPV technologies.

Amorphous silicon solar cells were introduced initially in the late 1980s, with expectations that they would dominate the PV market and be competitive with fossil fuels by the mid-1990s. This did not come to pass as the efficiency was less than 5 percent and initial cell reliability was less than 10 years. These drawbacks coupled with the pullback in fossil fuel prices in the late 1980s, off of peaks in the early 1980s, eliminated almost all demand for a-Si PV except in low-cost/low-power applications such as solar calculators, watches, etc.

Despite a lack of large-scale commercial applications, research continued on a-Si, which resulted in a much better understanding of a-Si PV physics. This research resulted in the development of tandem a-Si/Si:Ge alloy and a-Si/µc-Si cells that had efficiencies nearing 10 percent and field reliability of over 20 years. This positioned the a-Si PV to capture market share when renewed interest in PV energy emerged in the early 2000s.

Several events occurred starting in the early 2000s that accelerated the adoption of PV in general and that of a-Si in particular. First was the spike in fossil fuel costs that increased interest in all PV solutions. With this increased interest, the PV demand exceeded supply. Because crystalline silicon dominated the market, the increased need for silicon combined with the robust demand for silicon in the semiconductor industry caused silicon prices to skyrocket and resulted in a silicon shortage. These high prices spurred companies to invest in capital to expand capacity for a-Si (<2 percent silicon consumption of c-Si) and CdTe-based thin-film PV, as well as accelerated research and development into CIGS and organic PV. Fortunately for a-Si, the renewed interest in PV solutions happened at the same time the industry was transitioning to tandem and multi-junction architectures with much more attractive overall efficiency and reliability than the single-junction designs, which were the dominant products available in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

In addition to the demand for alternative energy sources strictly due to cost of fossil fuels, the global warming/climate change movement helped drive demand for PV solutions as they have a zero carbon footprint. Government subsidies for PV solutions (especially in Germany and Spain where such subsidies can be viewed as either jump starting the PV industry or distorting the marketplace, depending on your point of view) have made it economically feasible to build large PV arrays. Amorphous silicon is very competitive for these applications and this has created demand for more capacity.

By the end of the period covered by this report, the roadmap for thin-film silicon PV cells will most likely transition from the a-Si/µc-Si cells, which are now becoming the mainstream a-Si product, to tandem-junction cells that most likely will be tandem- or triple- junction cells based on combinations of amorphous silicon, microcrystalline silicon and nanocrystalline silicon. The roadmap by the end of the reporting period will see the introduction of silicon-based quantum dots or silicon nanowire-based architectures ramping to high-volume manufacturing. This a-Si PV materials roadmap predicted in this report provides a path to 15-16 percent cell efficiency leveraging the cheap SiH4 as a feedstock, no changes to the TCO or reflector materials (although there are certainly improvements in materials processing that can improve efficiency), and most likely will use much of the equipment infrastructure of the current tandem cell factories that are currently coming on line. This reuse of capital equipment and infrastructure represents an excellent value proposition to constantly increase efficiency, aggressively driving down costs, while not being saddled with heavy capital costs to improve efficiency with the exception of those to satisfy increased capacity.

Passing this on......

The OPERA Organic Electronics Entrepreneur Training Day and Venture Forum May 18-19 2009 at the Novotel Brussels Centre Tour Noire in Brussels, Belgium. Organised by the EU-funded project OPERA, which aims to strengthen the position of Europe in the field of organic electronics, especially start-ups and SMEs.

Organic Electronics Entrepreneur Training Day
The objective is to enroll a maximum of 10 individuals or small teams with a preliminary business idea that they want to evaluate and develop further. In the morning we will have two real-life business case presentations and a presentation of what is required from a good business plan. In the afternoon the participants will work on their own ideas in small workshop settings. Workshops are facilitated by experienced mentors. The objective of the workshops is to produce a refined, business-plan-like version of each business idea plus a set of concrete action points to continue the process.

Note: Registration is complimentary, there is no participation fee.

Organic Electronics Venture Forum
The OPERA Venture Forum will bring together ventures seeking new capital and private capital firms seeking investment opportunities. The objective is to enroll 15-20 presenting companies to present their business cases in front of 15-20 VCs. Start-ups are encouraged to participate although early stage companies are welcome. Presenting companies can represent any part of OLAE value chain - from materials to commercial applications.

Note: there is no participation fee for presenting companies.

Details: http://opera-project.eu/index.php?id=13&lang=EN.

Contact: victoria.plompen@Plastic-electronics.org

CIGS PV is coming to be known as the rising star of the TFPV world. More than ten companies were already commercially producing megawatt volumes of CIGS PV modules by the end of 2008. CIGS PV has achieved the highest efficiency of any thin-film PV technology; as of the writing of this report NREL was preparing to release certification for a 20.0 percent efficient champion cell created in its lab. Although this falls below the efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells (barely below that of multicrystalline cells at 20.3 percent efficiency), CIGS cells can be substantially cheaper because of their reduced material usage and the ability to manufacture them using low-cost processes.

The high efficiency of CIGS PV cells is due to their very high absorption rates that allow 99 percent of available light to be absorbed in the first micron of the material. As an alloy system, the bandgap of CIGS can be tailored to maximize efficiency given the expected illumination conditions. Generally, this means optimizing the bandgap to around 1.3 or 1.4 eV to match the solar spectrum. This can be done by varying the ratio of indium to gallium and/or by substituting sulfur for some or all of the selenium.

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By far the biggest issue is how the market will fare in 2009. The success of PV-and of all alternative energy sources-is based not so much on the cost of these alternative energy sources, but on the narrowing of the price gap between alternative energy and conventional energy. With the price of oil at the extraordinarily high levels it reached in mid-2008, PV of all kinds apparently had an unprecedented opportunity, especially since PV brings very low pricing risks as an advantage. The cost of sunlight will remain the same; namely zero. No one really knows what the future holds for the cost of oil!

Much of the impact of high oil prices on the PV market was due in part to perception. Coal and natural gas account for the majority of fossil fuel-fired electricity generation. Though costs of these fuels are also rising, their growth is less dramatic and less visible than the rising cost of oil. Nonetheless, high oil prices contributed to a favorable climate for alternative energy, and serve as a proxy for worries about energy costs.

Based on the attractive business climate earlier this year we had upgraded our forecasts for PV as a whole. At the time, we noted that there was (and still is) a large addressable market available for PV. In a recent report, the European Photovoltaics Industry Association (EPIA,) has shown that if all of the roofs in the OECD countries were fully equipped with rooftop solar, 16 percent or so of the need for electricity could be supplied. This does not seem an extravagant scenario in the long run, but it would take many times the current planned capacity for PV production to achieve it.

While such bullish analysis would still seem to apply in the long run, we have taken a different view of the short-term prospects for PV. There was always going to be some overcapacity in the PV market in 2009 which could have been dismissed as the result of building for the future. However, with construction down and both housing and energy prices falling around the world, the immediate prospects for PV are not good since sales are still strongly concentrated in the U.S. (especially California), Japan and Germany all of which are dealing with rather nasty recessions now and likely throughout next year.

Faced with downturns in the industrialized nations, many firms are looking to growth in both China and India to save them. However, while these countries may well be huge markets for PV in the future, don't expect much from them in 2009. First, although they are huge countries geographically and in terms of population, combined their economies are still 1/3rd that of the US. Both countries are also facing challenges given the decline of the US and EU based economies. Another item to consider is that rapidly industrializing countries are not known for their sensitivity to environmental matters so PV installations are limited in their appeal in this regard.

TFPV has some specific marketplace advantages and disadvantages as we enter 2009. It may in certain cases be less expensive than crystalline silicon PV, although that case is arguable. In addition, its ability to be fabricated on flexible substrates makes it especially suitable for novel BIPV products, such as solar tiles and cladding. Installation of such products may be used to give additional selling features to new homes. On the other hand, some of the TFPV technologies may be considered a more risky prospect than the longer established crystalline silicon PV technologies. This can result in reduced willingness to fund investment in TFPV materials, both at the level of the solar panel manufacturer and the ultimate customer. However, the degree to which that is important will vary with the type of TFPV.

For many TFPV firms, the best that may be hoped for in 2009 is a holding pattern. The firms best able to weather the storm will be those that have cash in the bank, a proven low-cost manufacturing solution and good management. With regard to the management issue, we note that management issues have arisen at a number of TFPV firms in the not too distant past.

We are predicting a $2.7 billion (US) thin-film pv market in 2009.

The recent announcement of NanoMas receiving a $3.2 million ($US) infusion from BASF and Earthrise Capital Partners, LLC and NanoMaterials Investors, LLC, is a great sign for the materials business.

BASF is the right type of investor for small companies looking to capitalize on their IP and German company's sheer size and the resources it brings to the table makes for interesting possibilities. We are familiar with NanoMas and thought that they would be worth a look from a larger company with capital to invest.

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